Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Transcript of Avatar Nerdiness

Holic: So did you see the series finale of Avatar yet?
12:26 AM me: yup
Holic: XD I fangasimed so many times
me: Seriously
12:27 AM but I really wanted certain things fleshed out
like Zuko's search for mother
Holic: yeah me too
me: the Order of the White Lotus
Holic: indeed
I wanted to know who ALL the old people were
me: YOu didn't?
12:28 AM Holic: no no not the main ones
me: oooh
yeah seriously
Holic: I wanted to know some background stuff
like how they formed and such
me: Seriously!
12:29 AM Not to mention the Toph crush resolution
Toph having a crush on Sokka
though that might have been resolved
on the Ember Island ep
Holic: yeah Toph gets no love
me: but I missed it
Holic: hmm they kinda sorta touch on it
12:30 AM wait nevermind I wast thinking of something else
but Toph is so awesomely awesome
12:31 AM I was so disappointed that Zuko's mother was only touched on at the very end
gah cliffhanger!!!
12:32 AM me: I KNOW!!
ALl I want
is a 15 minute epilogue episode
Holic: That would be great
me: And where is the Earth King?
12:33 AM Holic: forgotten apparently
I even forgot about him until you mentioned it
me: And what about the Southern Water Tribe?
Or the Souther Water Very Small Collection of Iglos Behind a Broken Wall?
12:34 AM Holic: lol not important enough to make it to the 2 hr movie ending?
>_> they need an epilogue
me: Welll
12:35 AM It kind of needs to be rebuilt
And they didn't make the misnomer rumor good
so the world is technically STILL out of balance
you know
all the air benders
are kind of
sort of
12:36 AM Holic: I guess its all up to Aang
me: granted
it would be roughly 100 years until the next Airbender avatar
but still
that's MAYBE
three to four generations
12:37 AM Holic: world is still out of balance without them
Aang has a lot of work to do
12:38 AM me: okay
Let's go through the motions
They sort of imply
that bending runs in families
Holic: sorta kinda
12:39 AM me: and let's go under teh assumption that the Avatar childern have an equal chance of being a bender of any element or not being a bender
Holic: alright
1/5 chance of baby being airbender
me: and we'll also assume that two benders with produce bender childern
or at least, carry the genes
12:40 AM so it might skip a generation
Ex: Katara's grandmother was a bender (?) but her mother was not
Katara is a bender therefore it skipped a genreation
Holic: right right
12:42 AM So if Aang and Katara have kids, their kids might not be benders but their grandchildren might
me: right
12:43 AM hmm
So 50/50 that they might be a bender
Ex: Katara and Sokka
Sokka is not a bender
Katara is
12:44 AM Holic: yeah
me: So for Aang
his childern's probabilities are
1:2 not bender
1:2 bender
12:45 AM Within that bender probability
1:4 any specific element
1:8 overall to be an airbender
12:46 AM Holic: makes sense
12:49 AM me: So
Let's say
they have three kids
which is reasonable
anything more seems improbable
Holic: yeah
me: especially since he is so dedicated to his spiritual enlightment
as an Air Nomad
12:50 AM So let's be optimisic and 2 out 3 are benders
Holic: alright
me: One is a water and one is an air bener
since they are the dominate traits
in the parents
Holic: ja
12:52 AM me: And we'll even to go as far as to say that the other two childern carry the recessive air bender gene
And we'll assume that they each have 3 kids
or at elast average
12:53 AM from the three kids we have nine kids
Holic: at least one of these kids are airbender
me: right
12:55 AM if we go with the pure probabilities
And we will assume that Aang will die of natural causes at the age of 80
12:56 AM unlike the Guru who managed to live over 100 years but followed the same path of spiritual enlightment as the monks
so let's go with nice round numbers like 20
Holic: heh
me: Aang and Katara have kids at 20
12:57 AM so
for Air1 to have kid air2
Aang will be 40
Holic: yep
me: so
12:58 AM Let's go to the next generation
29 kids and Aang is 60
Holic: where'd 29 come from
12:59 AM me: each of the nine grand kids have three kids
so great grand childern
Holic: isn't 9x3=27?
1:00 AM me: 29/8 = 3 ish
Let's call it 4
1:01 AM Total of air benders living: 1 + 1 + 1 +4 = 7
1:02 AM Aang, air1 who was 1:3 , air2 who was 1:9, air3 4:29
this is fun <3
1:03 AM Holic: lol
me: So after 40 years
we have 7 times the number of airbenders we started with
1:04 AM 29 great grand have 47 great great
47/8 = roughly
1:05 AM 6
Aang is 80 and he dies
So now we have 12 airbenders
1:06 AM Holic: Avatar cycle continues so water is next?
me: Water is next
I think my avatar giving all bending is flawed
Avatar Roku
1:07 AM married and has childern
Holic: only fire benders though
me: only fire benders
Holic: I think they only pass on their original bending element
me: Right which makes a lot more sense
but is no good for our numbers
because it would form another growth tree
1:08 AM to run parrallel and even strength the airbender gene pool
Holic: yeah because now its 1/4 of kids can be air bender
me: WHy is it 1/4?
1:09 AM Holic: 1/2 bender vs. not bender and 1/2 water vs. air
me: ooh
Holic: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
me: we'll have to recrunch
1:10 AM Holic: XD
1:12 AM me: So let's go back to the first generation
1:13 AM Holic: one is water, one is air, and one is not bender
me: right
THat worke dwel :3
9 grand kids
1:14 AM Aang is 40
so 2 are airbenders
Running Tally: 4 air benders
Aang - 60
27/4 = almost 8
RT: 12 air benders
1:15 AM Holic: at age 80?
me: 47/4 = almost 12
1:17 AM oop
3*27 = 81
1:18 AM 81/4 = 20 ish
Holic: so 20 airbenders by the time Aang dies at age 80
me: actually more
1:19 AM because when he was 60 there were 12
so now there's 32 -1
therefore 31 living air benders after Aang dies
1:20 AM 81*3 = 243
243/4 = 61 ish
but again
Aang's childern die at 8-
1:21 AM so it's 32 + 61 -1
Holic: 92 airbenders
me: right
with masters and such
1:22 AM So Water avatar is 20
RT: 92 airbenders
Water: 40
1:23 AM 243*3 = 729
729/4 = 182 ish
1:24 AM Grandchildern die -2
92 + 182 -2
Holic: 272?
me: yeah
good job!
pat pat pat
1:25 AM Holic: lol XD
me: god this is fun
1:26 AM Holic: Avatards indeed
me: we should post this somewhere
Holic: your blog maybe?
me: yeah :D
Holic: yay!
1:31 AM me: 729*3 =2187
Water: 60
1:32 AM 2187/4 = almost 547

5 minutes
1:38 AM me: 272 + 547 -9 =
1:39 AM Holic: so 810 airbenders when water avatar is 60?
me: yup
WE should break 1000 by the time the Water avatar dies
Holic: lol
1:40 AM well that means thats theirs pretty good odds there will be an airbender that can be the avatar
yay air temples restored!
1:43 AM me: but this might be overly optimisic
because it assumes that all the childern without airbending
will have childern that could airbend
Holic: yeah
me: sort of like Sokka's childern being water benders
Holic: and assuming doesn't skip generations

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