Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Subjects of My Not So Silent Desperation: Being the Avatard

Yeah... I make no reservations over the fact that I am a nerd, but sometimes I forget just how far my fan-ness will take me. So here is the work so far my friend and I have made to estimate how many airbenders there will be by the time the next Air Avatar comes. Feel free to criticize, praise, double check and do your own work. I know it's not as realistic as it could be and it could be more streamlined, but I couldn't/didn't feel like working out a rock-solid formula for it.

Mostly Logical Assumptions:

  • Aang and Katara will have children at 20
  • All of their children and their children, etc. will have children at 20 because 20 is a nice round number
  • Aang will die at 80 years old
  • All Avatars will die at 80 years old
  • Aang and his descendants will have three children each, assuming three is the average
  • All children will live to have children and die at 80 years old
  • Bending is inherited, but can also skip generations, therefore all of an airbender's descendants, whether or not they have airbending are able to produce children with airbending, ex: Katara's maternal grandmother was a waterbender (right?). Katara's mother was not a waterbender, but Katara is a waterbender. Therefore, bending can skip generations.
  • Because it is very vexing to plot out every possibility of marriage, probabilities will remain constant so there will not be airbenders interbreeding to strength the odds or severe weakening of odds (It's called, I didn't know how to address this problem so I'm throwing it out)
  • It is a 50/50 chance for a child to be a bender from two or one bender parents
  • Because Aang and Katara are both benders, it is a 1/4 chance for their children to be airbenders
  • Therefore, all of the children of Aang's descendants will also have a 1 out of 4 chance of being airbenders
  • Despite being able to master all four elements, children of other Avatars will only inherit their "native" element, ex: Avatar Roku had children and there were no indications that they could bend other elements therefore Roku's children that could bend were only firebenders.
  • Only whole numbers will be used even though this will cause the rounding errors to become more and more severe with each generation and the margin of error becomes wider

Aang: 20 years old
Aang and Katara have 3 kids, being optimisic, we have one child with no bending, one with water bending and one with air bending.
Running Tally (RT): Aang + 2nd generation = 2 airbenders
Aang: 40 years old
Their 3 kids will have 3 kids each, producing 9 grandchildren.
1:4 will be airbenders therefore 9/4 = roughly 2 airbenders
RT: Aang + 2nd +3rd = 4 airbenders
Aang: 60 years old
9 grandchildren have 27 great-grandchildren. 27/4 = almost 8
RT: 12 airbenders
Aang: 80 years old and dies.
Water Avatar is born.
27 great-grandchildren yield 81 great-great-grandchildren. 81/4 = 20 ish
RT: 12 airbenders + 20 - 1 (Aang died) = 31
Water Avatar: 20 years old
(81)(3) = 243 great3 grandchildren
243/4 = 61 rounding up... ish
RT: 31 +61 -1 (Aang's children die) = 91
Water Avatar: 40 years old
(243)(3) = 729 great4
729/4 = 182 ish
RT: 91 + 182 - 2 = 272 airbenders
Water Avatar: 60 years old
(729)(3) = 2187 great5 grandkids
2187/4 = almost 547
RT: 272 + 547 - 8 = 811 airbenders
Water Avatar is 80 years old and dies. The Earth Avatar is born.
(2187)(3) = 6561
6561/4 = 1640 kind of
RT: 811 + 1640 -20 = 2431

I know there is a way to make this streamed line, but my calculus is really rusty so please enlighten me.

Transcript of Avatar Nerdiness

Holic: So did you see the series finale of Avatar yet?
12:26 AM me: yup
Holic: XD I fangasimed so many times
me: Seriously
12:27 AM but I really wanted certain things fleshed out
like Zuko's search for mother
Holic: yeah me too
me: the Order of the White Lotus
Holic: indeed
I wanted to know who ALL the old people were
me: YOu didn't?
12:28 AM Holic: no no not the main ones
me: oooh
yeah seriously
Holic: I wanted to know some background stuff
like how they formed and such
me: Seriously!
12:29 AM Not to mention the Toph crush resolution
Toph having a crush on Sokka
though that might have been resolved
on the Ember Island ep
Holic: yeah Toph gets no love
me: but I missed it
Holic: hmm they kinda sorta touch on it
12:30 AM wait nevermind I wast thinking of something else
but Toph is so awesomely awesome
12:31 AM I was so disappointed that Zuko's mother was only touched on at the very end
gah cliffhanger!!!
12:32 AM me: I KNOW!!
ALl I want
is a 15 minute epilogue episode
Holic: That would be great
me: And where is the Earth King?
12:33 AM Holic: forgotten apparently
I even forgot about him until you mentioned it
me: And what about the Southern Water Tribe?
Or the Souther Water Very Small Collection of Iglos Behind a Broken Wall?
12:34 AM Holic: lol not important enough to make it to the 2 hr movie ending?
>_> they need an epilogue
me: Welll
12:35 AM It kind of needs to be rebuilt
And they didn't make the misnomer rumor good
so the world is technically STILL out of balance
you know
all the air benders
are kind of
sort of
12:36 AM Holic: I guess its all up to Aang
me: granted
it would be roughly 100 years until the next Airbender avatar
but still
that's MAYBE
three to four generations
12:37 AM Holic: world is still out of balance without them
Aang has a lot of work to do
12:38 AM me: okay
Let's go through the motions
They sort of imply
that bending runs in families
Holic: sorta kinda
12:39 AM me: and let's go under teh assumption that the Avatar childern have an equal chance of being a bender of any element or not being a bender
Holic: alright
1/5 chance of baby being airbender
me: and we'll also assume that two benders with produce bender childern
or at least, carry the genes
12:40 AM so it might skip a generation
Ex: Katara's grandmother was a bender (?) but her mother was not
Katara is a bender therefore it skipped a genreation
Holic: right right
12:42 AM So if Aang and Katara have kids, their kids might not be benders but their grandchildren might
me: right
12:43 AM hmm
So 50/50 that they might be a bender
Ex: Katara and Sokka
Sokka is not a bender
Katara is
12:44 AM Holic: yeah
me: So for Aang
his childern's probabilities are
1:2 not bender
1:2 bender
12:45 AM Within that bender probability
1:4 any specific element
1:8 overall to be an airbender
12:46 AM Holic: makes sense
12:49 AM me: So
Let's say
they have three kids
which is reasonable
anything more seems improbable
Holic: yeah
me: especially since he is so dedicated to his spiritual enlightment
as an Air Nomad
12:50 AM So let's be optimisic and 2 out 3 are benders
Holic: alright
me: One is a water and one is an air bener
since they are the dominate traits
in the parents
Holic: ja
12:52 AM me: And we'll even to go as far as to say that the other two childern carry the recessive air bender gene
And we'll assume that they each have 3 kids
or at elast average
12:53 AM from the three kids we have nine kids
Holic: at least one of these kids are airbender
me: right
12:55 AM if we go with the pure probabilities
And we will assume that Aang will die of natural causes at the age of 80
12:56 AM unlike the Guru who managed to live over 100 years but followed the same path of spiritual enlightment as the monks
so let's go with nice round numbers like 20
Holic: heh
me: Aang and Katara have kids at 20
12:57 AM so
for Air1 to have kid air2
Aang will be 40
Holic: yep
me: so
12:58 AM Let's go to the next generation
29 kids and Aang is 60
Holic: where'd 29 come from
12:59 AM me: each of the nine grand kids have three kids
so great grand childern
Holic: isn't 9x3=27?
1:00 AM me: 29/8 = 3 ish
Let's call it 4
1:01 AM Total of air benders living: 1 + 1 + 1 +4 = 7
1:02 AM Aang, air1 who was 1:3 , air2 who was 1:9, air3 4:29
this is fun <3
1:03 AM Holic: lol
me: So after 40 years
we have 7 times the number of airbenders we started with
1:04 AM 29 great grand have 47 great great
47/8 = roughly
1:05 AM 6
Aang is 80 and he dies
So now we have 12 airbenders
1:06 AM Holic: Avatar cycle continues so water is next?
me: Water is next
I think my avatar giving all bending is flawed
Avatar Roku
1:07 AM married and has childern
Holic: only fire benders though
me: only fire benders
Holic: I think they only pass on their original bending element
me: Right which makes a lot more sense
but is no good for our numbers
because it would form another growth tree
1:08 AM to run parrallel and even strength the airbender gene pool
Holic: yeah because now its 1/4 of kids can be air bender
me: WHy is it 1/4?
1:09 AM Holic: 1/2 bender vs. not bender and 1/2 water vs. air
me: ooh
Holic: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
me: we'll have to recrunch
1:10 AM Holic: XD
1:12 AM me: So let's go back to the first generation
1:13 AM Holic: one is water, one is air, and one is not bender
me: right
THat worke dwel :3
9 grand kids
1:14 AM Aang is 40
so 2 are airbenders
Running Tally: 4 air benders
Aang - 60
27/4 = almost 8
RT: 12 air benders
1:15 AM Holic: at age 80?
me: 47/4 = almost 12
1:17 AM oop
3*27 = 81
1:18 AM 81/4 = 20 ish
Holic: so 20 airbenders by the time Aang dies at age 80
me: actually more
1:19 AM because when he was 60 there were 12
so now there's 32 -1
therefore 31 living air benders after Aang dies
1:20 AM 81*3 = 243
243/4 = 61 ish
but again
Aang's childern die at 8-
1:21 AM so it's 32 + 61 -1
Holic: 92 airbenders
me: right
with masters and such
1:22 AM So Water avatar is 20
RT: 92 airbenders
Water: 40
1:23 AM 243*3 = 729
729/4 = 182 ish
1:24 AM Grandchildern die -2
92 + 182 -2
Holic: 272?
me: yeah
good job!
pat pat pat
1:25 AM Holic: lol XD
me: god this is fun
1:26 AM Holic: Avatards indeed
me: we should post this somewhere
Holic: your blog maybe?
me: yeah :D
Holic: yay!
1:31 AM me: 729*3 =2187
Water: 60
1:32 AM 2187/4 = almost 547

5 minutes
1:38 AM me: 272 + 547 -9 =
1:39 AM Holic: so 810 airbenders when water avatar is 60?
me: yup
WE should break 1000 by the time the Water avatar dies
Holic: lol
1:40 AM well that means thats theirs pretty good odds there will be an airbender that can be the avatar
yay air temples restored!
1:43 AM me: but this might be overly optimisic
because it assumes that all the childern without airbending
will have childern that could airbend
Holic: yeah
me: sort of like Sokka's childern being water benders
Holic: and assuming doesn't skip generations

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Chat Room

I'm not too familiar with Blogger so I don't know all it's tricks and limitations, but I do know how to set up a link. Right now I'm looking into a couple of free chat room makers so that no one is limited by what IM software they use since I know AIM does make chat rooms. I'm completely open to suggestions if anyone has some good ideas since I am wandering into new territory.

Because I want it to be relatively private, yet easily accessible, I have been looking at some Java based chat rooms as well as the ever stylish and posh ParaChat with their week long demo. I am going to be spending time out of town with family so I may or may not be available online this week therefore, unless I've found something I really like, next week I'll start the demo and be online as much as possible.

I am also going to investigate the different ways I can manipulate my blog so (cross fingers) I can just have it up and no one has to leave the blog in order to get in. Please, please, please relieve me of my ignorance if you can on anything you like.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Batman: The Dark Knight (2008) Review

I'm going to go free form for this one if only because if you people didn't already see it, I don't know you.

I don't know you anyways, but that is beside the point. I do give a word of warning to those that have not seen this film yet.


I just realized now that my reviews have yet to touch on the ratings of movies, but I don't think I will bring it up unless it has something to do with the storytelling aspect of the film like some of the creative choices in Justice League: The New Frontier (which, by the way, is excellent so buy, borrow or steal a copy if you're a DC fan with some background knowledge - it is not very new-comer friendly though the comic solves all those problems). With some thought on the subject, I am glad that this movie is not rated R. At times, I have found movies try so very hard to get a certain rating when it comes between being PG-13 or R. They are either flying right underneath the radar of R or do anything and everything within their power to get it, which can be harmful to the storytelling. I am convinced that this is why certain PG-13 movies are far worse in content than many R rated ones that may or may not have some failings as stories.

The Dark Knight defies what is considered R rated material for it is disturbing, violent and non-apologetic. It makes no excuses and has no bars. Masterful and tasteful, it is a film that should not be missed by anyone with the nerve to sit all the way through. In those seats in front of the screen, it does not matter if you have read the comics. It does not care about your ignorance or your knowledge. Granted, fans of the source material will appreciate, but there is plenty to behold for the new viewers.

As ridiculous as it sounds, it will make you believe in Harvey Dent.

Whether or not you walk away with a message completely falls upon the shoulders of the viewer. They alone can decide for themselves what "entertainment" means to them. To me, what entertains us should not be empty smiles and time killed. The things that keep us busy, but give nothing back are hollow, false entertainments that can never be art and entertainment should be art. Catharsis should come with something to make us better if only because we need it so badly. But, perhaps betterment is not a need that is to be filled. Perhaps it is something that we need to be reminded in a world of dazzling lights at the speed of electronic processing.

Of course, I'm waxing philosophically at almost 4 in the morning. This could all be gibberish or something brilliant. But it seems like it comes down to the basic differences between DC and Marvel.

Marvel heroes, on the whole, tend to be deeply flawed, powered, but mostly human and very easy to relate to. DC heroes, mostly, are either masked adventurers or there to inspire. Some characters are there for self-improvement in one way or another, but most are to set an example.

Does this mean one universe is better than the other? Not really. I'm not here to preach morals. I just would like to talk to someone.

The Dark Knight has a message if you care to carry it with you. I believe in Harvey Dent. I hope you get to know what I mean.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Hellboy II: The Golden Army (2008) Review

Stats from IMDB
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Writer: Guillermo del Toro (Story and Screenplay), Mike Mignola (Story and Source Material - Comic)
Original Music: Danny Elfman
Genre: Action/Adventure/Drama/Comedy/Fantasy/Sci-fi
Runtime: 110 min
  • Demon
  • Federal Bureau Of Investigation
  • Good Versus Evil
  • Paranormal
  • Pyrokinesis
  • Second Part
  • Secret Government Organisation
  • Sequel
  • Anti Hero
  • Apocalypse
  • Based On Comic
  • Cigar Smoking
  • Dark Horse Comics
  • Hell
  • Nazi Experiment
  • Nazi
  • Soul
  • Superhero
  • Character Name In Title

Opinion Time!

What I Expected
There's not much to say really. I expected everything I saw in the trailers and from what I saw of the first movie - a fun, action-filled movie, heavy on the visuals, but still sharp on the writing.

What I Hoped
I loved Hellboy I. Not as much as I love Heroes or the Iron Man movie, but it has a nice little niche in my heart. Mainly because of Ron Perlman and the script. It looked great and the action was fun to watch and exciting. The script was fantastic and funny so you'd laugh the whole way without it being too corny or falling back onto slapstick or dirty humor. It's an honest to goodness clean, fun, action film so I had the same expectation for the sequel especially since it was the same director and writer.

Yes, the man behind Pan's Labyrinth did Hellboy I too. Go scramble and watch Hellboy again just to make sure if you had any doubts.

What It Is
In my opinion, a good sequel should be able to stand fine on its own so that literally anyone can watch it and enjoy it whether or not they saw the first movie. In addition, for fans of the first movie, a sequel should be a treat rather than a looming axe of dream demolishing doom that ruins everything forever. As anyone who has ever loved anything that was made into a sequel, there is both a feeling anticipation and dread because either it will tarnish the memory of something perfectly enjoyable or enhance it and give you further evidence to rub in people's faces to prove that you were right all along.

Hellboy II does everything I expect out of a good sequel.

Now, reread the hope and expectation sections since I hate to repeat myself. It's fun. It's funny. It's everything it's put up to be in the trailers.

There. Done with praises. Now to muckrake to my black heart-that-was-formed-by-the-remnants-of-a-dead-star's content without guilt.

It does a have a couple issues. Granted, my movie experience wasn't 100% fantastic. The theater wasn't cleaned for the midnight showing. People behind my friends and myself were loud and were kicking my chair. The ones directly behind me had his knee almost meeting my head the entire time and I have a sneaking suspicion that they snuck in beer when I heard the cans clatter against the floor. To top it all off, the screen was a little darker than usual and my eyes started to hurt from either the size of the Imax screen or due to the possibility that the staff didn't fix the projector correctly so it was still slightly out of focus, but clear enough to suffice. All in all, I'd say all of this does a credit to the movie because I still loved it and Ron Perlman.

Here's where I thought it was lacking. There was a few pacing issues. Unlike most mediums, film has the tragic misfortune of being a slave to timing who is a cruel mistress that will bend you over and make you call her "Daddy" if you don't know how to tickle her just right to give your viewers constant orgasms of awesome. If a film is too slow, it gets boring, but if it goes too fast, people might miss things and get confused or worse, find it utterly unsatisfying. I've found that most films nowadays err on the side of caution by making movies as fast-paced as possible, blurring the lines between "exciting" and "dangerously little story" since making a plot is like cooking a roux. It's not that hard to make, but it takes time to cook, yet can be spoiled by too little or too much time.

Well, that paragraph got away from me. I'll probably edit it later. Maybe.

Back to the point, without giving away spoilers, all I can say is that they took a little too long with the first half of the film that was mostly "world of man" stuff and could have put in an extra ten minutes for the second half since the trailers were emphasizing the Pan's Labyrinth aspect of it so much. It was a little jagged at times with the changing tempos of the plot and action and could have been executed better since they had the same people with a bigger budget, which should spell out success. And it did, but it still had room for improvement.

Oh, and don't sit through the credits. They didn't put in any goodies.

My Rating: B

Thursday, July 10, 2008


I'm so dissapointed in myself. XP I truly thought that I'd have my Hancock review and Page and Screen up already by now. 

In case anyone's curious, I really am somewhat preoccupied. I've been trying to figure out how jury duty works for the very first time (It teases me, I swear!) and my uncle has been sick for a long time and came to a crossroads recently. He had the choice of either getting the therapy that would extend his life for a few rather miserable and most liekly lonely months since none of us can really stay with him the entire time because of the distance or allowing nature to take its course.

He chose the latter.  

It's been hard on everyone, but life goes on. We understand where he's coming from on this and respect his decision no matter how much it might hurt us. 

In brighter, cheerier news, I am going to see the midnight premier later today. Woot on that. Hopefully I'll find a little bit of time and polish up my posts and put them up too. 

Hope y'all are fortunate in health and mind. Cheers. 

- Frugal Fan